The growing trend in healthier and more conscious consumption, along with rapid growth in GLP-1 medication usage, is already beginning to reshape food demand; changing what people eat, how much, and how often.
Research has shown impulse buys falling with GLP-1 usage, with one study finding a ~10% decline in savoury snack purchases and similar impacts in sweet and baked goods categories. Broader survey evidence also suggests that alcohol consumption decreases with GLP-1 usage, with another survey finding that ~62% of GLP-1 users reported lowered alcohol consumption.
In our previous article in the series, we discussed the sustainability of this trend, be it a short-term fad or long-term step change in consumer behaviour, and how it remains uncertain. However, what is certain is that for a growing cohort of consumers, GLP-1’s are already making an impact. Changing category demands will hit retailers first, but as this flows upstream, the ripple effects will soon be felt by manufacturers and suppliers alike. They must be ready for this.
Supermarkets are already feeling the impact
Retailers sit on the front line of this change, and the risks are clear: smaller baskets containing fewer high margin impulse purchases, misaligned ranges as demand moves between categories, and the inefficient use of prime store locations such as tills and aisle ends.
Nevertheless, there is opportunity for those who can respond quickly. Many retailers are expanding high protein and nutrient dense ranges and reformulating own label products to reflect changing consumption patterns. Morrisons’ recent collaboration with Applied Nutrition, for example, has created an exclusive high protein range explicitly targeting GLP-1 users.
Smaller appetites require smaller pack sizes, particularly across snacks and ready meals, creating opportunity for more efficient planograms. Successful retailers will adjust their store layouts accordingly; refreshing till side displays, resizing snack aisles, and allocating more shelf space to healthier ranges that better align with evolving behaviour.
With less overall demand, there is lower tolerance for duplicate SKUs and low volume lines. Promotional strategies must evolve, moving away from deep, volume-driven promotions on processed categories and towards more targeted activity aligned to emerging consumption trends.
With so many rapid changes, agility is key and success will depend on strong data, demand sensing and analytics capabilities. Retailers are investing in shopper analytics and loyalty insights to understand how GLP-1 adoption is influencing behaviour by segment, region, and category, enabling faster and more accurate demand signals upstream.
Capitalising on improved forecasts will still require strong collaboration between retailers and their suppliers. Those who have invested and prioritised this relationship, with integrated systems and data sharing, and strong joint value planning with collaborative forecasting, will reap the benefits. However, manufacturers still face challenges of their own.
Manufacturers face uneven pressure and an unequal ability to respond
For manufacturers, changing retailer demand means reduced volumes, increased volatility, and more portfolio scrutiny, but proliferate opportunities for those who can adapt. New and expanding categories open new revenue streams, and smaller pack sizes may lower costs through better truck optimisation and enable increased value throughput on production lines. Being able to adapt quickly will be key, but the ability to respond varies widely.
Larger manufacturers with broad portfolios are better insulated: declines in one category or geography can be offset elsewhere. They are also more likely to have flexible production lines, in-house reformulation expertise, and the capital to resize packs or re-configure factories quickly.
Smaller manufacturers face tougher trade-offs. A narrow product range, reliance on a small number of retail customers, and limited production flexibility increase exposure. When retailers rationalise ranges or reduce space allocated to declining categories, the impact on these businesses can be rapid and severe.
But manufacturers both large and small will face increased pressure; changing behaviours forcing the repositioning of legacy brands and introduction of new ones, demand for new or higher quality ingredients impacting procurement and costs, and utilisation challenges on high-volume, efficiency-optimised lines driving investment towards more flexible assets, or in some cases, consolidation and exit.
These pressures are driving M&A activity, such as Danone’s recent €1bn acquisition of the meal replacement brand Huel, citing its strong presence in the “Complete Nutrition” space as a key driver. Conversely, traditional weight loss products such as SlimFast have struggled as GLP-1 adoption grew, leading Glanbia to sell the brand in 2025 for less than 10% of its purchase price just seven years earlier.
Ultimately, manufacturers with scale, diversified portfolios and the capability to adapt production quickly are far better positioned to manage this transition. Those without such buffers face tougher trade-offs as demand signals sharpen and propagate upstream at increasing speed.
Agricultural producers experience a delayed but potentially deeper impact
Further upstream in agriculture, demand changes arrive later but are harder to correct for. Reduced demand for sugar, soft-drink inputs and specialty grains used in snacks and food processing will begin to appear as manufacturers cut volumes, but agricultural systems are inherently slow to respond.
Planting cycles, long-term land use decisions and capital intensity limit the ability to adjust supply, often resulting in overproduction, placing downward pressure on prices and margins.
However, GLP-1 uptake remains lower in emerging markets, and at a global scale the USDA expects the total amount of produced food calories to grow ~25% between 2019 and 2025. Producers with a global customer base may see limited short-term impact. Geographic and customer diversification acts as a natural shock absorber.
By contrast, producers reliant on a narrow set of customers, crops, or end markets with high GLP-1 adoption are more vulnerable. In such cases, sudden volume reductions will create surplus risk for farmers, rather than distributing it across the value chain.
Diversification is therefore a central resilience strategy. A broader customer base, access to multiple geographies, and exposure to a wider range of end uses reduce reliance on any single demand pattern. Agricultural co operatives play a key role, pooling risk, sharing market intelligence, and negotiating more stable offtake arrangements.
Partnerships with manufacturers are also increasingly important. Co-developing GLP-1 aligned inputs, such as higher-protein or functional ingredients, creates clearer demand signals and supports more stable production planning. Flexible contracting models, where volumes can be recalibrated as consumption evolves, help rebalance risk across the supply chain rather than leaving it upstream.
Resilience to change requires end-to-end collaboration and diversification
The impacts resulting from GLP-1 adoption will be felt unevenly, at different speeds and with varying intensity across the supply chain. Those who can diversify quickly, show operational flexibility and invest earlier in the data needed to identify and stay on top of trends will be in the best position to adapt. No single actor can manage this transition alone. Success will depend on strong collaboration, and how effectively demand signals move from the supermarket shelf back to factories and farms.
In the GLP-1 era, resilience will be defined by adaptability, diversification, and alignment across the system, and the sustainability of the changes being made.
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