GLP-1 medications have become mainstream. In England alone, usage has expanded rapidly, with annual users rising from approximately 239,000 in 2021 to nearly 396,000 in 2024. In the US, 25 million people are expected to be using them by 2030 (almost 7% of the US population and a rise from 5m in 2023), while in India their use represents an interesting opportunity to twin issues of diabetes and obesity, highlighting the global nature of the growth and diverse nature of reasons consumers and patients may opt for this treatment.
Much of the public conversation focuses on appetite suppression and weight loss results, but meaningful shifts are taking place across the food and drink industry. So, how are these medications reshaping consumer choices, category dynamics, and the way supply chains are configured to meet consumer demand?
A recent study suggested GLP-1 users could reduce grocery spend by roughly 6%. This, combined with the predicted rise in usage, could set alarm bells ringing for food and drink, FMCG, and retail leaders. The question remains: are GLP-1s just a trend or do they signal seismic change?
It may sound like a simple question, but for supply chain leaders there is no easy answer, only a complex and fast evolving reality to navigate.
Flash in the pan?
Diet cycles, wellness trends, and behaviour resets have appeared for decades. Many, such as keto, paleo, fasting, the Atkins boom of the 2000s, and even short-lived moments like the cabbage soup diet or juice cleanse crazes, have been powerful but temporary.
So, while GLP-1 may seem exciting, the underlying consumer motivations, to lose weight, improve health, feel better, are historical trends. Without knowing whether patients continue to take GLP-1s long-term, consumption behaviours could be expected to shift back over time. A study conducted by Oxford University suggested that behaviour sprang back to old consumption patterns faster than traditional dieting once patients stopped taking the medication.
From this view, demand doesn’t necessarily collapse. Instead, the GLP-1 effect is a normal, albeit accelerated, trend cycle. This means doing what has always been done to respond to new trends, but on accelerated timescales: reinforcing the need to prepare for continued growth in healthier and more intentional consumption patterns that were already underway.
Or a driver of fundamental food system transformation?
An alternative view is that GLP-1 is breaking precedent in ways that organisations planning to remain relevant in the future cannot ignore. GLP-1 prescriptions in England grew by more than 700% between 2020 and 2025, reflecting both medical demand and rising off-label weight loss use. With 66% of adults overweight or obese and over 1.2 million annual obesity linked hospital admissions, the pressure to scale pharmacological solutions is intensifying.
As GLP-1s evolve from injections to lower cost pills their accessibility will expand significantly. Easier administration and lower cash pay prices for oral semaglutide are expected to drive broader uptake across demographics. Some shifts are already visible on the high street. Greggs’ CEO has noted there is “no doubt” weight loss jabs are influencing customer behaviour, with consumers increasingly opting for smaller portions and higher protein items, prompting Greggs to rethink their menu and expand products like egg pots and overnight oats to meet this demand.
These behavioural shifts at the individual and retailer level are early indicators of a much larger structural change. As even modest adoption can create meaningful shifts in consumption patterns: smaller portions, fewer impulse purchases, more protein forward choices, and reduced alcohol intake.
Either way, businesses must take heed
Whether a new trend or the early signals of a systemic change, multiplied across millions of consumers, even small shifts reshape category growth rates, competitive landscapes, and long-term trajectory models. Food and drink organisations must therefore prepare for structural category impacts by incorporating GLP-1 driven changes in product mix, consumption missions, and cross category substitution.
Keeping both macro and micro views is important. People will still eat, but consumer behaviours are shifting. This micro volatility has bigger consequences than a stable macro picture might suggest. Early signals point to rising demand for smaller pack sizes, functional and high protein foods, and reduced interest in indulgent or calorie dense products. These changes don’t always show up in headline volume forecasts, but they reshape margins, product mix, and the role of specific SKUs in the portfolio.
What matters now is not predicting one definitive future but preparing for several potential ones. For organisations, responses should be less about seeking certainty and more about building capabilities to respond, or anticipate, changes that are still emerging.
Companies must anticipate how GLP-1s are reshaping consumption missions, with shifts increasingly cutting across traditional categories. Demand migrates across adjacent categories rather than within them, making mission led portfolio strategy more important than classic category management. For instance, a ‘snacking’ missions changes from choosing between chips, chocolate, or biscuits, towards small, high satiety options such as mini protein yogurts, ready to drink protein shakes, or portion controlled deliver sustained fullness with minimal calories but fall outside conventional snack definitions.
Commercial risk is shifting from volume loss to mix distortion. Grocery spend cuts are concentrated in ultra processed snacks, sugary drinks, and indulgent packs. In response, companies are adjusting portfolios launching portion controlled, nutrient dense products designed for satiety and smaller consumption.
How can food and drink organisations plan for multiple futures?
Companies do not need a definitive prediction of GLP-1 adoption; they need a planning ecosystem able to cope with rapid shifts in consumer behaviour. This means preparing for far more turbulence at the SKU level, even when the top line appears steady. Ultimately, there cannot be reliance on a single ‘expected’ scenario toward a set of dynamic scenarios that reflect different pathways for product mix, category interactions, and consumer missions.
Companies need to rethink their product innovation approach, as cycles get compressed, and rhythms shift from annual stage gate models to continuous test and learn approaches. Coca-Cola, for example, is accelerating innovation cadence and portfolio renewal to respond to GLP-1 driven shifts, whilst Unilever is doubling investment in plant based and gut friendly platforms.
A new forecasting “signal stack” is becoming essential, integrating behavioural, medical, demographic, and sensory indicators to explain why consumption is shifting. Traditional POS data lags structural drivers such as rising GLP-1 penetration, the emergence of oral formulations, and changing taste tolerances. Companies including IFF and Tate & Lyle are using proprietary research to map sensory aversions, evolving texture preferences, and nutrient density needs among GLP-1 users, enabling R&D teams to anticipate demand shifts rather than react to them.
Companies should identify trigger points linking behavioural signals directly to investment, innovation, and capacity decisions. Several players are already moving in this direction: PepsiCo is accelerating innovation cycles and introducing reformulated platforms such as “Simply NKD,” which removes artificial colours and simplifies ingredient lists. The company is also testing “mini meal” formats across brands like Sabra and Siete to align with reduced consumption and micro fuelling patterns.
Dynamic scenarios; accelerated pathways; flexible capabilities
In short, GLP-1 is accelerating a shift away from category based planning and volumed driven growth models. The companies gaining traction are those translating these behaviour shifts into mission-led portfolios, decision-triggered scenarios, new early-warning signals, mix-centric forecasting, faster innovation loops, and tighter value chain alignment. These examples show the direction of travel: smaller, cleaner, more nutrient-driven products; reformulated portfolios; accelerated innovation; and risk-aware operating models. This is no longer about forecasting the GLP-1 effect, it is about building an enterprise capable of adapting as consumer missions continue to evolve.
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