Featured in:
European Medical Journal
Process Engineering
Instability across the Middle East is intensifying concerns about logistics routes, energy markets and the supply of critical raw materials that sit behind many medicines. Geopolitical disruption is no longer a theoretical risk for pharmaceutical supply chains, yet latest research suggests too many companies still treat it as an occasional planning exercise.
The outcome of our latest survey of more than 800 senior executives across major markets showed only 22% of global pharma companies said they were actively assessing geopolitical risks at the end of 2025. The same proportion said they were building formal scenario planning capabilities. The data comes from our Operations Outlook 2026 research report, which draws on views from C-suite leaders globally. These figures provide a useful signal of where operational attention is going, and where it is not.
Cold chain medicines feel disruption first
In practice, medicines that need refrigeration, including some biologics and vaccines, are often among the first to show stress when transport networks wobble. Many manufacturers rely on air freight to protect cold chain integrity, but when airports face disruption the risk of delay rises quickly. A short delay can become a quality issue if temperature control is lost, a risk no manufacturer wants to discover too late.
Indirect exposure is also easy to underestimate. Many life sciences supply chains rely on active pharmaceutical ingredients, solvents and intermediates sourced from global manufacturing hubs such as China and India. Many of the energy supplies and upstream materials that support ingredient manufacturing move through the Strait of Hormuz. If the region is disrupted, energy prices can swing and input costs climb, which in turn constrain ingredient supply and affect pharmaceutical production far beyond the immediate conflict zone.
Scenario planning is still not embedded
Across the industry, there is a pattern of short-term fixes replacing long term capability building. During Covid and the Suez disruption, many companies implemented tactical measures, built buffers and secured alternative suppliers, but these steps were often temporary. Systematic, ongoing scenario planning still has not been embedded at scale. That deprioritisation is a growing risk to the continuity of supply of critical medicines.
Nearly two thirds of life sciences leaders told us they face relentless pressure to reduce operational costs. At the same time, 40% said rising raw material costs are their biggest supply chain challenge, and 33% pointed to demand volatility and forecasting difficulties. Put together, these forces make it easy to see why resilience investments get narrowed to the bare minimum.
Companies recognise the need to invest in resilience, but margin constraints can force highly selective action. Quick fixes will not be enough if the Middle East conflict continues. Even if it eases, the next shock may not be far away, and the same structural weaknesses will surface again.
A strong starting point is segmentation. Not every product needs the same level of protection, but critical medicines require more deliberate choices on sourcing, buffers and logistics capacity. Supply chains should be segmented by product criticality, then resilience strategies applied that match the patient risk, including dual sourcing where it is feasible and larger buffers where shortages would be unacceptable. Scenario planning should sit inside core operations, not alongside it, with clear trigger points, real time visibility and early warning signals integrated into sales and operations planning.
For the pharmaceutical industry, resilience now needs to be treated as a core capability, not a periodic project. The organisations that fare best will be those that make risk visibility routine, set clear decision triggers, and invest ahead of disruption rather than in response to it. Patients, regulators and payers will not judge performance by the elegance of a plan, but by whether critical medicines are available when conditions change.
It’s about scenarios, not strategy. We have developed Scenario Lab, our new AI-powered modelling platform, to help make scenario modelling an integrated part of supply chain management. The tool takes your operations data and simulates multiple scenarios and sensitivities, with easy to access insights and actions. Come and visit us at stand 55 at LogiPharma to learn more.
To find out more about our Scenario Lab, click below
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