What will Black Friday signal for UK supply chain and operations priorities in 2026?

As retailers brace for another intense period, Black Friday 2025 will do far more than a one-weekend revenue spike. It will act as a live barometer of operational priorities and resilience, shaping the Christmas trading window and offering early indications on 2026 performance and supply chain focus.

There is no doubt that Black Friday is a major stress test across retail and supply chain operations. The following five measures offer some clear real-time signals of structural health, how the next six months may unfold, and focus areas for supply chains to adapt to the year ahead.

1. Parcel carrier volumes and performance – High volumes and lower than expected issues with carrier delivery would indicate growth ahead and confidence in carrier capabilities
2. Depth of retailer discounts – Lower discounts would suggest confidence in consumer demand. The rise of selective discounts and value-based deals is more likely
3. Returns levels – Lower levels of returns would suggest more control and higher product quality. Returns charging continues to abate levels and help returns processing operations
4. Inventory positioning – Well-balanced or cautious inventory generally leads to better stock management and a healthier start to the following year’s operations
5. Loyalty and channel shifts – Maintained or increased loyalty and increased channel conversion rates would suggest supply chains are delivering on promises

Parcel carrier performance and volumes: A short-term barometer for e-commerce health

Carrier networks operate closest to capacity during Black Friday. If parcel carriers maintain on-time delivery performance, we typically see higher confidence to expand next-year e-commerce offerings, stronger retention of carrier contracts, reduced customer service backlogs and less operational firefighting. Parcel volumes act as a real-time indicator of consumer demand, and year-on-year growth typically combines to correlate with forward e-commerce momentum into the following year.

Carrier performance figures we’re watching: 

• YoY parcel volume growth – a measure of consumer spending and confidence
• Peak-day on-time delivery performance – how well the carriers cope as an indicator of resilience
• Carrier service backlogs entering Cyber Week – another indicator of carrier capacity issues
• Premium delivery adoption (same-day, timed windows) – levels indicating confidence in short order fulfilment capability

The last few years have been tumultuous however when carriers maintained on-time delivery, retailers entered the new year with smoother operations and stronger e-commerce growth. In contrast, widespread delays signalled supply chain pressure that drove up operational costs. Carrier network consolidation has also improved capacity management and balancing demand.

Retailer discounting and demand elasticity: A leading indicator of margin health

Discount intensity reveals the balance between inventory pressure and consumer demand. Lighter discounts with strong sell-through, signal a healthy demand, and a more profitable December reducing the need for Boxing Day promotions. Deep Black Friday discounts suggest slower consumer activity, excess inventory and margin risk into Quarter 1. Price elasticity and promotional planning remain key: strong responsiveness suggests resilient demand, whereas weak impact is an early warning sign.

Discount measures we’re watching: 

• Average depth of discount vs. 2024 and 2023 – The steady increase of discounting, but the extent of selectivity and value-based deals also warrants attention
• Timing of promotions – Early discounting is a notable warning sign as extended sales periods test the agility of supply chains. Early deals are already evident in 2025

Discounting in recent years has been used to boost consumer spending post pandemic. Margins have faced intense pressure from heavy discounting as well as ongoing supply chain issues. Notably promotional periods have been longer, except in 2023 where more controlled planning was generally employed but failed to impact sluggish sales. In 2024 discounts were higher and boosted Black Friday in the background of a flat trading year. Will we see higher discounts this year to attract cautious shoppers?

Returns levels: A predictor of Q1 operational cost and margin pressure

High return rates, especially in fashion, footwear, and marketplaces drive reverse logistics costs in January and slow clearance of resale stock taking up valuable warehouse space. Locked-up working capital and extra labour across DCs can add considerable pressure to businesses, whereas a disciplined Black Friday with lower return rates typically creates a cleaner start to the new year.

Returns levels we’re watching: 

• Initial 7-day and 14-day return rates – General indicator for overall returns levels, with 7-day rates an early signal to plan staff and capacity for logistics processing operations
• Category-level return variation – Apparel typically has the highest returns level, with other categories having more similarity at a lower level.
• Changing trends of returns reason codes – can indicate changes in shopper behaviour, such as the recent rise of buy, try, return

Recent years have been varied, with 2023 an outlier again with slower initial returns pace linked to cost-of-living pressures and more deliberate purchases. Some pre-pandemic behaviours have returned but changes such as charging for returns are prevalent to reduce the level of impulse returns from previous years. The 14-day cooling off period remains a key driver of pace, but new physical returns options could see a shift in how early returns are processed.

Inventory positioning: A strong indicator of working capital health and planning capability

Black Friday reveals whether retailers entered the season overstocked, understocked or well balanced. Strong sell-through on core lines without stockouts signals better forecasting accuracy, healthy cash conversion heading into Christmas and improved ability to manage Q1 replenishment. However, excess stock forces prolonged discounting and stockouts reveal supply chain fragility.

Inventory positions we’re watching: 

• Weeks of cover pre-and post-Black Friday – indicating how balanced the flow and call-off decisions were against forecasts
• Out-of-stock rates on promoted and non-promoted SKUs – How well stock positioning and flow is controlled in the network
• Extent and depth of markdown required to off-load seasonal stock – How financial pressures affect margin erosion

From 2020 to 2024, inventory strategies varied. Well-balanced or cautious inventory in 2020 and 2024, while excess stock in 2022 forced prolonged discounting into the following year. Post-covid supply chain issues in 2021 created stockouts, revealing fragility and prompting resilience measures.

Shopper behaviour signals: Loyalty and channel mix volatility reflect maintained promises

Consumer behaviour during Black Friday reveals broader structural trends: where people shop, how they engage, and which channels convert. Weakening loyalty and dependence on paid traffic signal fragile demand, while strong repeat purchases, app engagement and higher subscription levels, point to a healthier start to the new year.

Behaviour signals we’re watching: 

• Online vs. store channel mix – impacting supply chain, allocation and stock positioning accuracy which can drive additional logistics costs
• Share of revenue from returning vs. new customers – loyalty measure of service performance impact
• Conversion rates across app, mobile web, desktop – indicators of how well consumer engagement is working

Previous years have seen a well-documented change to e-commerce from factors like Covid lockdowns, peaking on-line penetration in 2021 and a cost-of-living crisis hitting in 2022. Retailers responded by extending Black Friday to a promotional season rather than day. The rise of social commerce channels and growth interest in sustainability are all making an impact. Supply chain pressures are driving focus on predictive analytics and AI to improve demand forecasting and inventory control, protecting margins.

What are we already seeing in 2025?

Leading into Black Friday 2025, early signals are mixed. Parcel volumes are up suggesting resilient on-line demand and a shift to early shopping, but consumer spending remains volatile. Discounting has been disciplined in key categories like electronics, but we see earlier and deeper promotions in fashion and other fast-moving categories, which suggests competitive pressure to clear stock. Shopper engagement may be riding high via apps and with repeat customers, but 2025 end of year overall is looking unpredictable for retailers. A successful Black Friday would signal operational resilience, but economic uncertainty clouds the outlook for 2026.

Authors: Rob Carlisle and Pete Hindley

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Rob Carlisle

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