The last few years for the LTL market have been volatile and 2025 was no exception, but surprisingly, LTL carriers have seemed to circumvent the basic laws of supply and demand.\u00a0 We say that tongue in cheek, but there is some truth to it.\u00a0 While the overall economy has been expanding, the manufacturing sector contracted for ten consecutive months through December 2025 according to the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index.\u00a0 This has led to sluggish demand from a core sector that drives LTL freight.<\/p>\n
Despite soft freight demand and economic uncertainty, LTL carriers prioritized \u201cpricing discipline\u201d in 2025 to protect margins.\u00a0 Per the TD Cowen\/AFS Freight Index, the LTL rate per pound in the 4th<\/sup> quarter of 2025 increased 4.9% year-over-year, and the LTL Producer Price Index (PPI) posted solid year-over-year gains. This was a result of General Rate Increases (GRIs) in the mid-single-digits, contract renewal increases ranging from 1.6% to 5%, and fuel price increases in late 2025 peaking in November. \u00a0\u00a0We had predicted a 1-3% increase last year, and while the overall increase was higher, there were pockets where our prediction held true.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s explore the underlying factors that impacted LTL in 2025.<\/p>\n Factors that could impact LTL costs in 2026<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n One thing is clear after the last few years – LTL carriers will continue to work hard to maintain their pricing discipline.\u00a0 Several carriers have already announced General Rate Increases in the 4.9% to 5.9% range.<\/p>\n LTL carriers also continue to invest in technology to help them target cost reductions and optimize revenue, enabling them to be selective in the business they accept or retain.\u00a0 They manage density and capacity actively and continually adjust their linehaul and service networks to minimize costs.\u00a0 With manufacturing remaining sluggish for at least the first six months of 2026, LTL carriers do face some headwinds that could create cracks in their disciplined pricing approach.\u00a0 However, it is highly likely that they will maintain their discipline.\u00a0 We explore some of those factors below that could impact LTL pricing in 2026.<\/p>\n Predictions and how you can effectively navigate LTL in 2026<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n As we detailed above, numerous factors will continue to impact LTL operations, costs, and ultimately the pricing. \u00a0When negotiating, you will get some version of the list outlined above from LTL carriers justifying their pricing increases.\u00a0 We expect the LTL carriers\u2019 pricing discipline will hold<\/strong> in 2026 and we\u2019ll see 3-5% increases<\/strong>, but opportunity still exists to negotiate and achieve savings or at least minimize the pricing increase.<\/p>\n So, what things should you be doing to ensure that you are receiving the most competitive LTL pricing?\u00a0 We recommend the following:<\/p>\n If you find it challenging to validate or negotiate LTL pricing, many third\u2011party logistics providers and consultants offer valuable support. They can equip shippers with the procurement expertise and analytical tools needed to navigate the process effectively. While these resources can be beneficial, it is essential to select an impartial partner who prioritizes your best interests.<\/p>\n High\u2011quality data is critical in the LTL market. Focus first on ensuring the accuracy and completeness of your data; without it, your decision\u2011making will be, at best, directional.<\/p>\n Wishing you a successful 2026!<\/p>\n\n
\n
\n
\n